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Louisiana · Tuesday, Oct 6
Oct 9 →This run's Intel brief

Lake Charles leads Scott's new forecast for growth. One of the LNG plants behind it wants a smaller tax bill.

Loren Scott's 2027-28 forecast, presented Oct 6, has Louisiana adding about 55,000 jobs, with Baton Rouge adding the most and the Lake Charles metro growing fastest, at 5.5%, led by three LNG terminals under construction. In Cameron Parish, Commonwealth LNG asked to cut its plant's taxable value from 20% to 7%, and the district attorney proposes reviving an inactive parish board to negotiate payments in lieu of taxes instead. Beyond that, a quiet window: no project on the LNG board changed status.

Covers Oct 3 to 6, 2026, plus a Sep 11 OpenAI notice no earlier brief carried

Regions tracked
11 vs Scott's forecast
Stories
2
Quick hits
8 2 in SWLA
LNG projects
18 0 moved
01

Against the forecast

Real jobs from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, month by month, next to Dr. Loren Scott's forecast for 2026 to 2028 (published October 2026). Every story below says where it lands against these numbers.

Lake Charles jobs, Aug 2026
106.5k
Preliminary, BLS
Jan to Aug vs a year earlier
+1.4%
106.4k average vs 104.9k
Scott's 2027 target
109.8k
+2,900 jobs · #1 in % growth, #3 in jobs
Lake Charles projects under construction
$64.4B
$63.0B more awaiting a final investment decision

Lake Charles

Jan to Aug 2026 averaged 106.4k jobs, up 1.4% on the same months of 2025. Scott's 2026 estimate is 106.9k; his 2027 target is 109.8k (+2,900 jobs).

BLS monthly jobsScott's forecast, annual average100k105k110k202420252026202720282026 · 106.9k2027 · 109.8k2028 · 112.9kAug · 106.5k (prelim.)
BLS Current Employment Statistics, not seasonally adjusted, thousands of jobs. Hover or use the arrow keys to read a month.
Monthly numbers
MonthJobs (BLS)Scott, that year's average
Aug 2026106.5k (preliminary)106.9k
Jul 2026106.8k106.9k
Jun 2026107.0k106.9k
May 2026107.0k106.9k
Apr 2026106.8k106.9k
Mar 2026106.3k106.9k
Feb 2026105.7k106.9k
Jan 2026105.1k106.9k
Dec 2025106.5k
Nov 2025106.5k
Oct 2025106.2k
Sep 2025104.8k
Aug 2025105.3k
Jul 2025105.0k
Jun 2025105.8k
May 2025105.6k
Apr 2025105.1k
Mar 2025104.6k
Feb 2025104.6k
Jan 2025103.1k
Dec 2024104.0k
Nov 2024104.7k
Oct 2024104.9k
Sep 2024104.5k
Aug 2024104.8k
Jul 2024103.9k
Jun 2024104.8k
May 2024104.8k
Apr 2024105.0k
Mar 2024104.0k
Feb 2024103.5k
Jan 2024102.2k
Dec 2023103.2k
Nov 2023103.5k
Oct 2023103.6k
Sep 2023103.1k
Jobs by regionEvery number here is jobs: nonfarm payroll jobs counted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, in thousands, so 106.4k is about 106,400 jobs. "2026 so far" averages the monthly counts from January to Aug, and the change compares the same months of 2025. Scott's columns are his forecast of each year's average, and the last column is the jobs he expects the region to add from 2026 to 2028.
Actual jobs, BLSScott's forecast, annual average
Region2026 so far Jan to Aug avgvs 2025 same months202620272028Jobs added 2026 to 2028
Louisiana2,006.1k+0.8%2,007.8k2,034.9k2,062.8k+55,000 2.7%
Lake Charles#1 in % growth, #3 in jobs106.4k+1.4%106.9k109.8k112.9k+6,000 5.5%
Baton Rouge#1 in jobs, #3 in %438.1k+1.8%438.6k447.1k455.1k+16,500
New Orleans#9 in %470.6k−0.5%473.6k476.6k479.8k+6,200 1.3%
Lafayette#4 in jobs, #6 in %189.1k+0.7%189.0k191.3k194.6k+5,600 2.9%
Shreveport-Bossier#5 in jobs, #7 in %171.2k0.0%171.6k174.1k176.4k+4,800 2.8%
Monroe#2 in %92.5k+1.2%93.3k95.3k97.5k+4,200 4.5%
Houma#7 in jobs, #4 in %85.7k−0.6%85.8k87.0k88.5k+2,700 3.1%
Alexandria#8 in jobs, #5 in %62.2k−0.2%62.6k63.6k64.4k+1,800 2.9%
St. Tammany#9 in jobs, #10 in %102.8k+0.9%102.9k103.4k103.9k+1,000 1%
Hammond#10 in jobs, #8 in %49.5k+0.1%49.8k50.2k50.6k+800 1.6%

Industrial projects Scott's Table 4, as of 2026-08-03

Lake Charles$64.4B under construction · $63.0B awaiting FID
Baton Rouge$27.5B under construction · $13.3B awaiting FID
New Orleans$4.0B under construction · $49.9B awaiting FID

Forecast: Dr. Loren C. Scott, Loren C. Scott & Associates, Louisiana Economic Forecast: State and MSAs 2027 and 2028, presented at McNeese State University, Lake Charles, 2026-10-07 (Alliance SWLA State of the Economy). Jobs: BLS Current Employment Statistics, not seasonally adjusted. Tracker built 2026-10-07.

02

The stories

Ranked on three scores, 1 to 5: local impact (money, jobs or costs here), forecast weight (does it move the projections) and confidence. A story needs 9 of 15.

1Economy · New forecastStatewide

Scott forecasts 55,000 more Louisiana jobs by 2028, with Lake Charles growing fastest

Loren Scott's new forecast, presented Oct 6 at Business Report's Louisiana Business Symposium, has Baton Rouge adding the most jobs, 16,500 over two years, and the Lake Charles metro growing fastest, 6,000 jobs or 5.5%.

What happened

Economist Loren Scott presented his Louisiana Economic Forecast for 2027 and 2028 at Business Report's Louisiana Business Symposium on Oct 6. Business Report's coverage leads with Baton Rouge, which the forecast has adding more jobs than any other Louisiana metro over the next two years, driven by tens of billions of dollars in industrial construction. The rest of that article is behind a paywall, so the figures below come from the report itself, with its page numbers.

Statewide, Scott projects nonfarm jobs of 2,007,800 in 2026, 2,034,900 in 2027 and 2,062,800 in 2028, a two-year gain of about 55,000, or 2.7% (p.5, p.8). Baton Rouge leads in jobs added, with 16,500 (p.6). The Lake Charles metro is projected to grow fastest in the state, 6,000 jobs or 5.5%, and ranks third in jobs added (p.7, p.87). The report counts $64.4 billion of industrial projects under construction in the Lake Charles area and $63.0 billion more awaiting a final investment decision, as of Aug 3 (p.37).

Against the forecast

BLS counts so far sit just under the new forecast's 2026 marks, with four months still to come: Louisiana averaged 2,006.1k jobs from January to August, up 0.8% on the same months of 2025, against Scott's 2026 estimate of 2,007.8k (p.5), and Lake Charles averaged 106.4k, up 1.4%, against his 106.9k (p.87). The steeper climb comes next: +27,100 jobs statewide in 2027 and +2,900 in Lake Charles.

Dr. Loren Scott's forecast ↗BLS: Louisiana jobs ↗BLS: Lake Charles metro jobs ↗
Who it touches
  • Contractors, suppliers and staffing firms around Lake Charles, where the report ties the state's fastest growth to LNG terminals, chemical plants, refineries and Chennault International Airport (p.7).
  • Businesses serving industrial construction in the Baton Rouge area, which the report has adding the most jobs, with $27.5 billion of projects under construction (p.37).
  • Owners setting 2027 hiring and budgets anywhere in the state, who now have a fresh regional number to plan against.
Local impact 3Forecast weight 5Confidence 412/15
Sources and what to watch

Watch: The September BLS count for Louisiana and its metros, the first monthly reading since the forecast's release.

  • Local impact 3: A projection, not a deal: it sets the expected pace of hiring across Louisiana but moves no money by itself.
  • Forecast weight 5: It is the new forecast: 2027 and 2028 figures for the state and all 10 metros.
  • Confidence 4: The figures are read in the report itself, with pages; Business Report confirms the Oct 6 presentation, but its article is paywalled past the opening.
Editorial data chart with takeaway
2LNG · Property taxesSouthwest Louisiana

Cameron Parish weighs reviving an inactive board to set Commonwealth LNG's tax payments

Commonwealth asked to cut its plant's taxable value from 20% to 7% and took the request to the governor's office after the local ITEP committee said no. District Attorney Tom Barrett proposes a payment-in-lieu-of-taxes deal instead.

What happened

Commonwealth LNG, the $13 billion export terminal under construction in Cameron Parish, asked parish officials and the local Industrial Tax Exemption Program (ITEP) committee to reduce its project's taxable value from 20% to 7%. When the committee rejected the request, the company took it to Gov. Jeff Landry's office. The Louisiana Illuminator reported the dispute on Oct 2; the 10/12 Industry Report's write-up, citing The Current, followed on Oct 5.

District Attorney Tom Barrett proposes reviving the parish's inactive industrial development board to structure a payment in lieu of taxes (PILOT): Commonwealth's plant assets would be exempt from property taxes in exchange for contractual payments over 20 to 30 years, plus community benefits. By Barrett's estimate, Commonwealth could pay about $150 million in the first decade and roughly $1 billion over the following ten years; no agreement has been finalized. The parish is also considering amending the board's 50-year-old governing documents to require police jury approval before the board acts.

Against the forecast

Scott's forecast lists Commonwealth at $13 billion, online around 2030, and counts it among the three LNG terminals under construction that lead the $64.4 billion of projects behind the Lake Charles metro's projected 6,000 new jobs in 2027-28 (p.7, p.87-88). This dispute is over the plant's taxes, not its build, and the parish's tax take is not a figure the forecast projects.

Dr. Loren Scott's forecast ↗BLS: Lake Charles metro jobs ↗
Who it touches
  • Cameron Parish government and the local taxing bodies on the ITEP committee, whose revenue from the plant turns on the outcome.
  • Parish residents and community groups, since a PILOT agreement could add community benefits on top of the payments.
Local impact 4Forecast weight 2Confidence 39/15
Sources and what to watch

Watch: Commonwealth's amended ITEP application: once it is filed, the local committee has 45 days to consent, object or take no action.

  • Local impact 4: Sets how much a $13 billion plant pays Cameron Parish over 20 to 30 years; the next local step runs on a 45-day clock.
  • Forecast weight 2: Commonwealth is in Scott's Lake Charles jobs math, but a tax deal does not move its construction or the jobs projection.
  • Confidence 3: Two outlets carry one line of reporting (the Illuminator Oct 2, the 10/12 Industry Report Oct 5 citing The Current); no parish document or company statement was checked, and the original could not be opened.
Swiss modernist poster
03

LNG project board

Every Louisiana LNG export project, where it stands and the last dated thing that happened to it, as of Oct 7, 2026. A row changes only when a cited source moves it.

Nothing moved this run
151.6 MTPA of capacity on the board across 14 projects, by statusMTPA = million tonnes of LNG a year. Proposed and stalled projects count at their planned size; a project with no published capacity adds nothing to the bar.
Under construction 59.4MTPA · 4 projectsAwaiting FID 28MTPA · 4 projectsOperating 22MTPA · 2 projectsProposed 25.7MTPA · 3 projectsSuspended 16.5MTPA · 1 project
Under construction4 projects · 59.4 MTPA

CP2 (Phases 1 and 2)

Venture Global · Cameron Parish
29MTPA
$33Bcost

Phase 1 FID Jul 2025, Phase 2 FID and $8.6B financing Mar 13, 2026 (total CP2 financing $20.7B); 16 modules on site, first LNG targeted 2H 2027. 29 MTPA peak per VG; other reports say 28.

Scott's forecast$33B for two phases incl. 91-mile CP Express pipeline, 400 jobs (p.88). Cost is Scott's figure, not re-verified from a primary source.

Louisiana LNG (formerly Driftwood)

Woodside Energy · Calcasieu Parish
16.5MTPA
$17.5Bcost

FID Apr 2025; 28% complete at end Q2 2026 (T1 35%, T2 25%, T3 18%); first LNG targeted 2029. Three-train foundation phase.

Scott's forecastFID Apr 2025, $17.2B (p.88); cost rose from $16B on tariffs (p.22). Woodside now states $17.5B.

Commonwealth LNG

Caturus (Kimmeridge) · Cameron Parish
9.5MTPA
$13.5Bcost

FID and $9.75B project financing closed May 15, 2026; Phase 1 operations expected 2030.

Scott's forecastFID May 2026, $13B, online 2030 (p.88). Other outlets say $13B; OGJ says $13.5B.

Delfin LNG (FLNG 1)

Delfin Midstream · Cameron Parish
4.4MTPA
$5Bcost

Offshore, in federal waters. FID on first FLNG Jun 4, 2026 ($5B); Samsung Heavy builds vessel, exports from 2030. Up to three FLNGs, 13.2 MTPA total.

Scott's forecastSays first of FOUR FLNGs, second FID by yearend (p.88-89); company sources say up to three units, 13.2 MTPA.

Awaiting FID4 projects · 28 MTPA

CP3

Venture Global · Cameron Parish
$44Bcost

No 2026 milestone found; VG's Q2 2026 release does not mention CP3. Earlier reporting: $44-45B, FID by 2027, start-up 2031. VG's 2026 filings describe a CP2 Expansion instead; CP3 may be that project renamed, not confirmed.

Scott's forecast$44B, DOE non-FTA permission already granted, 'high probability' of FID soon (p.90). Neither the DOE grant nor an FID date is confirmed in 2026 sources.

Cameron LNG Expansion (Train 4 + debottleneck)

Sempra Infrastructure · Cameron Parish
6.8MTPA

FERC extended construction deadline to Mar 2033 (Nov 2025); DOE extended export commencement deadline to Mar 2033 (Apr 2026). FID still needs partner consents, EPC selection, offtake; Sempra has flagged possible delay for cost headwinds. 6.75 MTPA train plus up to about 1 MTPA debottlenecking.

Scott's forecast4th train, no dollar amount (Scott guesses $4-6B), FERC deadline Mar 16, 2033, FID may fall outside forecast period (p.91). Consistent with filings.

Delfin LNG (FLNG 2)

Delfin Midstream · Cameron Parish
4.4MTPA

Offshore, in federal waters. Limited notice to proceed to Siemens Energy; MidOcean (EIG) may take up to 50% equity; FID targeted end of 2026. Capacity assumed same design as FLNG1.

Scott's forecastFID on second FLNG projected by yearend (p.89).

Sabine Pass LNG Stage 5 expansion

Cheniere · Cameron Parish
16.8MTPA

FERC final EIS issued for Stage 5 (trains 7-9, about 16.83 MTPA added per FERC); no FID found. Existing Sabine Pass plant operating. Exact FERC dates not captured.

Scott's forecastScott: Cheniere 7th train at its present site, $4.7-6B, FID expected next year (p.91).

Operating2 projects · 22 MTPA

Calcasieu Pass (CP1)

Venture Global · Cameron Parish
10MTPA

Commercial operations began Apr 15, 2025; 37 cargoes in Q2 2026, 149-154 cargoes guided for 2026.

Scott's forecastDescribed as operating, one of three LNG export facilities in the Lake Charles MSA (p.86); initial facility named p.90.

Cameron LNG (Trains 1-3)

Sempra Infrastructure (with TotalEnergies, Mitsui, Mitsubishi/NYK) · Cameron Parish
12MTPA

Operating three-train Phase 1; Sempra 10-Q 2026 treats it as an operating facility. The 12 MTPA figure is general knowledge, not re-verified.

Scott's forecastOnly Cameron LNG is in the SLCUC manpower survey (p.93).

Proposed3 projects · 25.7 MTPA

CP2 Expansion (brownfield, about 11.7 MTPA)

Venture Global · Cameron Parish
11.7MTPA

FERC and DOE non-FTA applications filed 2026; VG targets FID early 2027, first production late 2028. The 11.7 MTPA figure is from a secondary report, not VG's release.

Scott's forecastNot mentioned by name; Scott lists CP3 instead (see CP3).

Magnolia LNG

Glenfarne · Calcasieu Parish
8.8MTPA

Per Scott, asked FERC for a 5-year extension in Jan 2026; no non-FTA export authorization. No primary 2026 source found.

Scott's forecast'A project we consider dead' (p.91).

Monkey Island LNG

SCT&E LNG · Calcasieu Parish
5.2MTPA

Pre-FEED done, McDermott selected for FEED, ConocoPhillips process; DOE semi-annual report Oct 2025-Mar 2026. 5.2 MTPA is an MOU volume per Scott. Parish location not confirmed.

Scott's forecastRanked low probability (p.91).

Suspended1 project · 16.5 MTPA

Lake Charles LNG

Energy Transfer · Calcasieu Parish
16.5MTPA

Energy Transfer suspended development Dec 18, 2025 to focus on pipelines; open to a third-party developer but unlikely to commit capital itself.

Scott's forecastSays Energy Transfer 'scuttled its $10 billion LNG project' (p.91). Scott calls it cancelled; ET's wording is suspended with third-party option open.

04

Quick hits

The rest of the window: investments, jobs, costs, policy and development news too small for a story, each linked to the original.

Most important first
American PressOct 3
Energy & industry

Moss Bluff solar farm's tax-cut claims lack documentation, police juror says

Orion Renewable Energy Group's proposed Persimmon Energy Center would cover 4,700 acres with a claimed $1.7 billion investment, and its representatives cited property tax cuts of about 22% in Ward One, 27% in Ward Six and 7% elsewhere in the parish. Police Juror Darby Quinn said staff could not provide documentation, and no permit application has been filed with the Calcasieu Planning and Zoning Commission.

American Press ↗
10/12 Industry ReportOct 5
Port & trade

EPA proposes air permits for Blue Marlin crude export port off Cameron Parish

The Blue Marlin Offshore Port could export about 605 million barrels of crude oil a year and would use vapor-capture and combustion systems designed for 99% capture efficiency; the permits carry a 30-day public comment period. The developer is Energy Transfer, per the report, which gave no cost or job figures.

10/12 Industry Report ↗EPA comment page ↗
05

Sources

What this edition read, and the projections every story is measured against.

News read this run

Louisiana edition · Tuesday, Oct 6 · built Oct 6, 2:02 PM by /intel-brief · covers Oct 3 to 6, 2026, plus a Sep 11 OpenAI notice no earlier brief carried22 sources read
DemoReal posts. Nothing publishes.Reset